Sen. John Bel Edwards?
What are the chances the former Democratic governor might run next year? And could he win in Louisiana?
It was an intriguing tidbit buried in a Tuesday New York Times story about the U.S. Senate Democrats’ prospect for taking control of the body in the 2026 midterm elections: Among the prospective candidates Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has courted is former Louisiana Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards.
The big news was that, according to the Times, Edwards hasn’t turned Schumer down.
Shane Goldmacher, a national political correspondent, wrote:
In Louisiana, Mr. Schumer has spoken by phone and met once in Washington with former Gov. John Bel Edwards, a Democrat, according to a person briefed on their conversations. Senator Bill Cassidy, the Republican incumbent, faces at least one primary challenger after voting to convict Mr. Trump during his second impeachment trial. Mr. Edwards has signaled to party leaders to circle back to him closer to August, the person said.
What are we to make of this? Could a Democrat like Edwards win a U.S. Senate seat in Louisiana? How would his strong anti-abortion stance play with Democrats?
First, let’s note that Edwards hasn’t spoken about this publicly. We don’t know if he’s really looking at the race.
Rumors are that state Sen. Jay Luneau of Alexandria, the only white Democrat in the state Senate, is thinking about the race. I tried to reach Luneau a few weeks ago to ask him about this, but he did not respond.
While I don’t know what Edwards intends, I know that Luneau or any other potential Democratic candidate for the Senate can’t raise a dime or win many commitments until it’s clear what Edwards will do.
Edwards’ response to Schumer—check back in August—puts everyone on hold.
If he is eyeing a race, Edwards is wise not to enter it today.
Louisiana is still very red, especially in Senate and presidential elections.
Edwards won reelection by a narrow three points in 2019, while Trump carried the state 58-40 the following year and by 60-39 in 2024. Republican Sen. John Kennedy won reelection in 2022 with 61 percent of the vote.
There’s not much reason today to believe that a Democrat, even one as attractive as Edwards, would be viable in such a race.
But if any Democrat could be viable in a U.S. Senate race, it would be someone like Edwards.
The former governor has sky-high name recognition, a record of accomplishment, and is untarnished by major scandals. He’s a great communicator and a fiscal conservative with an admirable record on health care and public health who deftly guided Louisiana through trying periods—COVID and several monster hurricanes.
Edwards would be an attractive, viable candidate for the same reasons I believe he would have won a third term as governor if the state constitution had allowed him to run: He was a popular governor, and the public respected him and liked him.
Edwards could run for the Senate as a competent moderate with a heart. Depending on the state’s and nation's politics in 12 months, that could be advantageous on the political spectrum, especially if the arch-conservative state Treasurer John Fleming wins the GOP nomination.
After Trump’s tariffs have tanked the U.S. economy, even voters in deep-red Louisiana might consider someone other than a Trump cultist who cheers him on as he drives the nation’s economy further into the ditch.
In other words, there might be an opening for a Democrat in a midterm election that many observers see shaping up as particularly difficult for some Republicans tied to Trump.
Among the unanswered questions are:
Would Louisiana Democrats’ desire to depose Sen. Bill Cassidy or defeat his serious GOP challenger, Fleming, be strong enough to cause them to overlook Edwards’ positions on reproductive rights?
Many Democrats would give Edwards a pass on that issue if his election to the Senate would allow them to gain control of that body and begin to turn the tide of the Trump Administration. But not all of them would, which could hurt him in a close race.
Would Edwards struggle to raise money outside Louisiana unless he alters his position on abortion?
Winning a U.S. Senate race in Louisiana could easily cost $20 million to $30 million. Can Edwards raise that? I think he could, but national Democrats would have to give him a pass on abortion rights, or he’d have to modify his position on that issue.
Then, there’s the question of whether Edwards and his wife, Donna, are interested in spending most of their time in Washington, D.C. I see no evidence of that.
So, my guess is that he won’t run.
If Edwards wants to get back into politics, his better bet would be to run in 2027 for the office he once held.
That said, if Edwards has any interest at all in the race, he’s wise not to make the call today. But he needs to do so soon.
Qualifying for the state’s April 18 party primary will be Jan. 14-16. Under the old open primary system, a candidate wouldn’t have needed to qualify until the summer of 2026.
The change in Louisiana’s election system moves up the race by about six months, forcing potential candidates to make decisions and raise money much earlier than in the past.
Because of his name recognition, popularity, stature, and fundraising ability, Edwards has more time to decide than someone like Luneau, but he cannot wait much past August.
I’m taking a break
I need some downtime after a hectic spring promoting my new book, You Are My Sunshine: Jimmie Davis and the Biography of a Song. My wife and I will travel over the next few weeks. When I return, I’ll start writing my next book.
That means I may only post once a week here for the rest of the year. There’ll be times when I post more, but I need to devote more time to book writing than opinion writing through the summer and early fall.
For those paid subscribers who’ve become accustomed to twice-weekly posts, I hope you stick with me. If you can’t, I understand.
I'm enormously grateful to everyone who’s supported me over the past 18 months. I hope this Substack has been helpful to you in some way, and I hope it will continue to serve you well.
See you again in a few weeks!
Jay Luneau and JBE are the closest of friends.
Jay will indeed sit tight til jbe decides.
Jay is a great guy. Very quiet. Very devoted to his constituents.
Does not have a big presence outside of his CENLA district.
Jbe's life was made such hell by the MAGAS during COVID. I doubt his family wants to go down that road again.
I am not sure he could beat the Trump regime this time, like he did last time.
Hard hill to climb. Different regime this time.jbe will not move without some polling data...for sure.
Will progressives overlook his stand on abortion in order to beat MAGA?
Some will. Some will not.
Time will tell.
Bob, take your time and recharge the batteries. Frankly, I've been wondering how you've been keeping the pace like this. I know I have developed the habit of taking a couple of days each week to save the e-mails and opinion pieces for the next day. A day spent reading a book and entertaining the pup seems to lower the blood pressure quite well.
We'll be waiting patiently when you come back.