Stick a fork in Sen. Bill Cassidy

Gov. Jeff Landry’s new attack on him over COVID vaccines spells doom for the GOP senator’s reelection, but there are other reasons he was already cooked.

U.S. Sen. Bill Cassidy may not understand it yet—stages of grief and all—but his reelection effort, already on life support, is likely dead after Gov. Jeff Landry attacked him in a tweet on Wednesday evening.

To be clear, the likelihood that Cassidy will win the GOP nomination next year was already slim. MAGA will never forgive him for voting to impeach Donald Trump in January 2021.

Cassidy tried to win them over. He handed Trump and MAGA his self-respect and slavishly obeyed Trump’s instructions over the past eight months.

Cassidy made it possible for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to become secretary of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Surely, he thought, Trump and MAGA would forgive him, embrace him, and push him over the line in the GOP primary next year.

Well, Cassidy proved to be a gullible mark. Kennedy gladly accepted Cassidy’s support in exchange for a bunch of hollow promises about supporting vaccines, and then promptly started spitting in Cassidy’s face.

After Kennedy fired the new CDC director over her support of vaccines, Cassidy finally summoned the courage to challenge Kennedy.

And on Wednesday, he also challenged Landry and his surgeon general, Ralph Abraham, who have denigrated vaccines and made it difficult for Louisiana residents to get the shot without a doctor’s prescription. That’s something Cassidy complained about to Kennedy during his Senate Finance Committee testimony last week.

Speaking to reporters, Cassidy called on Abraham to write a blanket prescription for every person in Louisiana who qualifies for the COVID shot under the current, restrictive federal rules.

According to a story in the Shreveport Times by USA Today Network reporter Greg Hilburn, Cassidy said, "We can have a debate back and forth (about the COVID-19 vaccine), but if somebody wants it we should save them the inconvenience and expense (of a doctor's visit).”

When asked if the COVID-19 vaccine is safe and effective, Cassidy replied, "The FDA thinks it's safe and effective. FDA approval is the good housekeeping seal of approval." Cassidy said Abraham ought to write a blanket prescription and let people decide for themselves if they want it. "Give the patients [a choice]," Cassidy said. "Why not do that?"

That offended Landry, who has joined Kennedy and Abraham in lying about vaccines. On Wednesday night, he tweeted to Cassidy: “@senbillcassidy the last time I checked you have a prescription pad, why don't you just leave a prescription for the dangerous Covid shot at your district office and anyone can swing by and get one! I am sure big pharma would love you for that one!”

(Can we pause for a moment to consider that if you’re angry about your inability to get a COVID shot in Louisiana, or the difficulty of it because you now need a doctor’s prescription, Landry is apparently happy for you to blame him for that.)

Setting aside the whole debate about the safety of vaccines of all stripes and Landry’s dishonest attempt to undermine confidence in a vaccine that has prevented millions of deaths, it should finally be clear to Cassidy that nothing he’s done to curry Trump and Landry’s favor over the past year will be enough to overcome the distrust and hatred of him by the hard-core MAGA right.

Cassidy, as you may recall, also endorsed Landry a couple of years ago, no doubt hoping that Landry would reciprocate when the time came.

Well, Bill, the time came, and Landry is still busy trying to persuade Republican U.S. Rep. Julia Letlow to run against you. No matter how much you try, they are never going to fall in love with you.

If any of us, Cassidy included, needed any more evidence that his goose is cooked, Landry’s Wednesday night tweet should settle the matter.

But there’s more!

Even though his team touts polling from April showing him leading in the first primary in May, Cassidy is clearly underwater with his MAGA base. How do I know? Because, while his pollster has released numbers showing Cassidy in the lead in the first round—although even those numbers are very out of date—they’ve released no numbers about how Cassidy might fare against a runoff opponent like Letlow, state Treasurer John Fleming, or the other GOP opponents he’s drawn.

Trust me on this: If Cassidy and his pollster had good polling showing him beating Letlow in a runoff, they would release them.

But that evidence is only circumstantial. What else do we have to suggest that Cassidy’s in trouble?

Well, first there’s the number of opponents Cassidy has drawn.

Here’s a simple rule of American politics: Strong incumbents don’t draw multiple, well-funded opponents. A strong incumbent runs on a "peace through strength” philosophy: raise as much money as possible, accumulate as many endorsements as possible, as early as possible. That usually results in a clear primary field if the incumbent is viewed as strong or invincible.

Cassidy is viewed as neither strong nor invincible.

Cassidy has lots of money, but he lacks prominent endorsements. And he’s drawn several prominent opponents: Fleming, state Sen. Blake Miguez, and Louisiana Public Service Commission member Eric Skrmetta. State Rep. Julie Emerson, R-Carencro, has said she’ll run if Letlow doesn’t.

Strong incumbents don’t draw this many prominent opponents.

Finally, there is the fact that Trump and Landry haven’t endorsed him.

I cannot recall an incumbent U.S. senator from Louisiana who did not get the support of a governor of his own party. The last time I can recall this happening was in 1930, when Gov. Huey Long refused to endorse Sen. Joseph Ransdell and ran against him instead. (If you know of a more recent case, please drop it in the comments section.)

Whatever the case, strong incumbents—and even weak incumbents—almost always enjoy the support of their state’s governor if they’re from the same party.

If, eight months before primary election day, an incumbent U.S. senator has several credible opponents, no endorsements from the president and governor of his own party, and no poll showing him trouncing those opponents in a runoff, he’s in deep trouble.

Every sign suggests that this will be Cassidy’s last term. I’ve maintained for months that this is the case and have also argued that Cassidy has an opportunity to change the narrative of history about his Senate tenure.

As it is now, he will be remembered as the senator who enabled the destruction of public health in the United States and who did so because he selfishly put his political interests ahead of his constituents’ health. That’s an awful, disgraceful legacy.

Cassidy has only a few months to change that narrative. It would involve his acknowledging—to himself, at least—that he will probably not win reelection and, therefore, has nothing left to lose by trying to restore his reputation and, let’s hope, some shreds of our previous strong public health system.

A new, courageous Cassidy won’t win the GOP nomination, but he could save many lives.

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